Who to Bet

Carlos Quentin started the year off HOT, I mean extremely hot!  After just 12 days of baseball, Quentin already had hit 7 HRs and was looking like he may even eclipse last year's breakout performance.  Unfortunately, it has been pretty much all down hill since then.  He has seen his average drop from .302 down to an abysmal .237, and he has only had 1 HR since then, and that was almost 2 weeks ago.  So, what in the world is going on with him?

First installment of the Pretenders and Contenders when it comes to Pitchers. A pitcher, unlike a hitter, should always regress to the mean of about .300 for BABIP. Here are some pitchers that are either getting really unlucky or really lucky. What you need to look for are those who are keeping their BB/9 low, and have a high K/BB ratio. Finally, if a pitcher has a very low (lower than 60%) Left on Base % (LOB%), then they are most likely going to start to do very well also.

Keep your eye on the BallAs I was scanning my fantasy baseball team I noticed that Chris Davis is battling a measily .193, which I daresay is hurting my average for sure.  I decided to look into his BABIP and noticed that he is at a respectable .275, which should be a bit higher, but good enough.  Then I happened to look at his HR/FB%, and saw that he is actually up in that category over 2008 by almost 10%.  So, what is the problem here?  Well, I scanned across the page and saw his K%, which is at an amazing 47.7%!  That is high enough to currently lead the majors.  This K% is going to come down probably closer to the mid 30s by year end, but it's still amazing he is so high as of right now.  Here are the current leaders in K%, both good and bad.

We've done a good amount of analysis to find players that we think will turn it around, and I'd like to share with you that ZIPS has released their latest projections for the remainder of the season.  This spreadsheet should give you a good idea of what players will do for your team the rest of the season.  A great tool for analyzing trades and potential rookies.  Crazily enough, I didn't find A-Rod anywhere on the sheet, but that is probably b/c he hasn't played yet.  Enjoy.

2009, ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Hitters through April 28

Is Verlander Back?Justin Verlander was one of the big disappointments of 2008.  He had 2 good years, then fell off the wagon last year.  This year started pretty much the same with Verlander getting shelled time in and time out.  However, let's look closer at the numbers.  Verlander was still striking out a ton of batters, his BB/9 were actually down, but what was different was his BABIP and his LOB%.  Normally a pitchers' left on base percentage is around the 70% mark, but as of today he is at just 50%, as was down in the 30% range before his last good outing aginst the Yanks.  Basically, hits were coming in bunches instead of being spread out like normal.  However, should we believe this...let's take a look at his velocity.

In my on-going quest to find the "deal of the century" with a trade, I am always looking at stats like BABIP, K% and LD% (Line-Drive %).  Basically, is the guy hitting ball, is he hitting it hard, and is he just getting lucky or unlucky.  BABIP is a category that needs to be compared with other categories like LD% to get an accurate picture.  So, in my first installment, here are some notable names that may be worth trying to get as their batting average is due to rise as their BABIP moves closer to the mean. (minimum 20 ABs)

1. Lance Berkman (.171) ...currently sporting a .169 BA, and a .171 BABIP.  This is a guy who normally is around the.300 mark for BABIP.  His numbers are going to start to creep north, and his K% should start to decrease as he starts to see the ball better throughout the year.

Ricky Nolasco is still goodI, like a lot of other fantasy owners, probably drafted Ricky Nolasco a bit earlier than some thought he was worth.  However, if you looked at his 2008 numbers you would hard pressed to find any fault with doing so.  He had nearly a 8K/9IP strikeout ratio, a 4.43K/BB ratio, and just a 1.10 WHIP...all with a fairly standard .284 BABIP.  He was a waiver wire pickup in our league, and the reason I grabbed him somewhat earlier than expected in our league was because I was watching him last year, and then someone snagged him right out from under my watch.  So, I was bound to not let that happen again  this year, but now that I have him, his ERA and WHIP look like that of a 2007 Justin Verlander.  But like Verlander of this year (more to come), you have to look more into it.

Welcome back my whotobet.net followers!  Are you sad that the NBA regular season is coming to an end?  I know I am.  It has proven to be better than a 401K in these troubling times.  TARP money?  Hell, banks should be bettin' with me!  The economy and John Q taxpayer would be in much better shape.  So rather than cry in our beers, let's focus on the short time we have left.  On to the matchups...