Week 3 Football picks

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The world is a finicky place when it comes to betting on football.  When I first saw the line on San Diego versus Kansas City last week at -4, and knowing how bad KC had been, I would've thought that was the easiest pick in the entire world.  Then the betting gods step in, cause a little rain, which somehow stirs up those crazy fans in their new stadium, then Jamaal Charles busts loose for a long TD, and the stage has been set for an upset.  Of course, that is week 1, so as the teams get better, especially the better teams, they won't be so inclined to just roll over at the first sign of adversity.  So, that brings us to week 2, where I'm all about a few favorites, one underdog, and one over.  Let's get to it.

Alabama @ Duke Over 58

Duke has given up a ton of points this year to teams that have no business scoring.  They gave up 400 yards to an FCS team and 50 points to Wake Forest. So, what do you think will happen when big old Alabama with Mark Ingram back comes into town.  Granted, I think Duke might actually hang in there for a while in this one and possibly cover the spread, but there is no way they are going to slow down 'Bama, and they might just get a few TDs of their own to seal the deal on the over.

Texas -3 at Texas Tech

I expected this line to come out around a TD or just over 7 points, so I was somewhat surprised to see UT only favored by 3.  Perhaps I am living in the past and thinking of the Colt McCoy days instead of the What's Eating Gilbert Grape days, but I don't think TTU is going to be as good either without Leech, aka the Mad Scientist.  Granted, they have put up 2 consecutive 300+ yard passing games, but that was against New Mexico and SMU.  TTU is 1-1 ATS this year and Texas is 0-2 ATS, so I'm thinking there may be a little leaning towards the conservative on this one.  Go Longhorns.

BYU at Florida State -10 

This line is going to continuously move up, but hopefully you got in early when it was at 9.5.  FSU looked abysmal last week against Oklahoma, but then again that was OU, and that was a no huddle offense that Greg Reid said is the fastest he has ever seen in his life.  Last year, FSU went up to BYU and put a whooping on the Cougars, and this year BYU has to come into Tallahassee.  I think Jimbo Fisher and the Noles will be looking for pride, if not for themselves, at least for the ACC.

New England Patriots -2 at New York Jets

The Jets were the darlings of the offseason in the NFL, but oh how things quickly change during the regular season.  The Jets looked horrific against Baltimore, and New England was on cruise control.  Brady is still Brady, and Sanchez is still Sanchez.  Sure, Revis may be able to lock down Moss, but then there is Wes Welker.  I thought this early on, and still think it now, that the Jets are overrated.  Go with the Pats.

New Orleans Saints -6 at San Francisco 49ers

Ah yes, the sucker game.  This line opened at 4.5, and has quickly gone up to 6, and probably 7 by kickoff.  The Niners got worked by a sub-par Seattle team last week, and things don't look to get any better for them this week against the defending Super Bowl Champs of New Orleans.  If Seattle can have a field day against the Niners, what do you think Brees and company will do.  Go Saints.