Week 2 Thursday night Pick

The SEC is considered the elite conference in college football, and for good reason.  With 4 championships in a row (Florida, LSU, Florida, Alabama), no other conference has been able to even come close.  The SEC kicks off it's conference play this Thursday night with 2 SEC West teams going head to head.  Auburn (1-0) goes against Mississippi State (1-0).  Auburn went 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS last year, and vice versa MSU went 5-7 SU, but 6-5-1 ATS.  So, who do you think we should go with?  The winning team SU or the winnning team ATS?  That trend of MSU beating the spread has continued this year with a blowout of 21 point underdog Memphis, whereas Auburn failed to cover a 31 pt. spread against Arkansas State, giving up 26 points in the process.  So, what to do? Auburn -2.5 vs Mississippi State  Normally, I'd say go with the team that is good ATS, but the margin of error for MSU is so slim, you can't really consider it.  What you should consider is that The Tigers, have won eight of nine meetings with Mississippi State, including four straight on the road.  With only a 2.5 pt spread out there, it seems logical to me to go with the Tigers.  Auburn has a fresh face behind center named Cameron Newton, who is a pure dual threat.  He went off last week, and even though this is his first year at Auburn, he was originally a transfer from Florida, who then went and WON the Nat'l Championship in Junior College last year. On the flip side, MSU is going to mainly play a freshman, and while he may have played well last week, that was a game against a 21 point underdog, and not a SEC team by any means.  Look for turnovers from the young QB, and a MSU defense struggling to lock down Cameron Newton.