If ever there were a year where all College Football experts were made to look like fools, this would be it. Starting with the Appalachian State victory over Michigan in Week 1 all the way through last week and LSU's untimely demise against Mcfadden, I mean Arkansas, this year has been a seesaw at the top of the Rankings. The good news is that we are still predicting at 58% ATS () having gone 3-1 last week. This week has a couple a few championships games, but the real money is probably elsewhere.
Rutgers at Louisville -3
This Thursday night game was supposed to be the culmination of both of these two teams' season as they battle for the Big East title. Unfortunately, it's more of a "what the heck, we have to play anyways, better earlier (Thursday) than later" type of game. Rutgers' (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) lone big win this year is against South Florida way back on October 18th. The rest were some great wins against the like of the Military Academies, Buffalo and Norfolk State...not really the cream of the crop. Louisville (5-6 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) performed well a few weeks ago against West Virginia, but got man handled by USF in their last game. So, where does that leave us? Do we take a team who's puff schedule has given them a few extra wins, or a team that continually under performs? Well, of course you go with the under performing team b/c they are due to perform. This will be Brohm's last home game for the Cardinals, and I expect him to get a strong Win.
California -13 at Stanford
Just like in the Thursday night game, we are going to go with the team that has under performed all year, the Cal Bears (6-5 SU, 3-8 ATS). Stanford (4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS) on the other hand has shocked some people this year (see USC), but recently hasn't been doing so well losing their last 4 games in a row. Although this is considered a home game for Stanford, you can't really consider it to be one b/c Cal is literally less than an hour away, and half the fans will probably be Cal fans anyways. Go with the Bears on this one and give up the points.
Oklahoma -3 at Missouri
Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) has been giving people fits this entire year. They are supposed to be dominant, yet they somehow manage to lose. Missouri (11-1 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) on the other hand is looking for that Cinderella bid to get to the BCS Championship game by taking home the Big 12 Championship. No one expected them to be here, and no one expects them to remain...hence why they are 3 point dogs. I concur that Missouri just isn't ready yet for the prime time of a BCS Championship game, and would take the Boomer Sooners to make amends for their 2 losses.
Virginia Tech at Boston College +5
Revenge, Revenge, Revenge. That is what the ACC Championship game will be about for Virginia Tech (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) who tries to right the wrong that Matt Ryan inflicted on them back in late October. And of course, we all know that it is difficult to beat a team once, but to have to beat them twice is near impossible. However, this isn't Blacksburg on a Thursday night, so they won't have the fans, the aura, and whatever else is happening up there that make Va. Tech become a beast on Thursday Nights. This is Jacksonville, and the Eagles will be flying. Despite their late struggles, Boston College (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is still a good team. Given good weather, no crazy Blacksburg fans, and all should be well for them, so take the 5 points.
Tennessee at LSU -7.5
As for the SEC Championship game between Tennessee (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) and LSU (10-2 SU, 4-7-1 ATS), this should be a barn burner. Tennessee is coming off an emotionally exhausting 4OT win last week against Kentucky, and I just don't see them having much left for the Tigers. LSU on the other hand is looking for redemption after blowing their National Championship hopes last weekend in their own 3OT thriller. 7.5 is a lot of points to give up to a talented Tennessee team, but LSU is a superior team, and it will show in Atlanta as they win by 10 or more.
