Mr. LA couldn't have said it better when he said last week was a crazy week for college football picks. I don't envision as much craziness this week, but I am predicting something special tonight in the Pitt vs. USF game. Pitt has seen its record balloon up to a nice 3-1 after starting off with a stunning loss to Bowling Green. The only downside to this is that they are 1-3 ATS thus far this year. The good news is that USF isn't any better at 1-3-1 ATS, despite being 5-0 straight up. So, who will break the trend tonight?
Pittsburgh +14 (-115) at South Florida -14 (-105)
As Mr. LA suggested, Vegas seems to have ballooned this spread a little to much for my taste. 2 TDs is a lot of points to give up, and I'm not sold on USF just yet. Grant it, USF has been good on defense against some pretty lackluster teams, and I don't think Pitt is an offensive Juggernaut, but I think they can hang. The good news for Pitt is that they are allowing around 188 ypg through the air, and if they can keep that number in check, they should be good against Grothe. Their 118 ypg on the ground may be tough to keep in check as Grothe is going to get his on the scrambles, but if they are forcing him to run and get hit, it will begin to take its toll. Take the Pitt Panthers in this one, and enjoy the 2 TD lead to start off.
