Thursday Free NBA Picks - 2-12-09

Welcome back to where the FREE NBA picks have been on FIRE!  That's right...we are  Did you go 3-0 last week?  Congratulations!!  Hopefully you took Indiana after the spread came out with that juicy extra half point (+5.5), giving you a win rather than a push.  And if you took Utah once the spread came out (-3.5), you were golden since the Jazz blew out the Mavs by 28.

So what do we have in store for you this week?  Lucky you, there is another triple shot of games on Thursday night.  Get your bets in now before a break in the NBA season with All-Star Weekend.  Oh yeah, baby.  On to the matchups...

Miami Heat (27-24) vs. Chicago Bulls (23-29)
Local Chicago products Derrick Rose and Dwayne Wade will go head-to-head for the second time this season.  In their first game, Miami had the home court advantage and put a 13 point whoppin' on Chicago.  I guess people assume the tables will turn this time around, as the Bulls are 3.5 point favorites.  I just don't see it.  Wade may be the only bright spot for the Heat lately, but I see him stepping it up even more playing in Chicago.  Plus, with Rose (Mr. #1 Draft Pick) getting a lot of the attention, we've all forgotten about the #2 pick from last year's draft...Beasley.  Don't you think he'll have a chip on his shoulder in this game?
Pick: Miami +3.5

Boston Celtics (43-11) vs. Dallas Mavericks (31-20)
Both good teams?  Yes.  But here is the telling difference.  Dallas beats crappy teams like Sacramento by 18 at home, while Boston beats strong teams like New Orleans by 12 on the road.  Recent competition matters.  Some times it drains you, other times it heightens your attention.  Boston is heightened.  And remember, my mantra for the year has been to beat down on Dallas...especially when they are at home and I see their 7-16 home ATS record.  Ugh.
Pick: Boston -4

Portland Trailblazers (32-19) vs. Golden State Warriors (18-35)
Look at the records.  No, not their straight up records.  I'm talking about against-the-spread.  As of this morning, Portland is 10-16 on the road while Golden State is 16-8 at home.  The spread isn't out yet, and the line may influence my final decision, but those records are very very telling.
Pick: Golden State (tbd)

So there you have it.  Your pre-All-Star fix.  Enjoy the weekend, and remember to get that special someone something special!!  See you next week.  Until then...