By Thomas "LA" Lewis 

Greetings college football fans. For those of you who don't know me, please allow a brief introduction.  As you can see above, my name is Thomas Lewis and I currently reside in New Hampshire - approximately 1 hour North of the current sports capital of the free world - Boston.  Well, professional sports anyway.  Having gone to the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Notre Dame, I wouldn't cross the street to put a wounded bald eagle out of its misery (let alone try to save it!) on the outside chance that it had something to do with Boston College.  Between the natural rivalry with Notre Dame, and their eventual flight out of the Big East for the ACC, there are few people on this Earth I enjoy to watch suffer more than BC fans.  Well, Mountaineer fans...but they have it coming, don't they?  Anyway, I digress.

Speaking of digressing, I met Don while living in Germany as an expat and...if I may be so bold...we became friends.  Hey, don't be so critical of my decision making skills - the dude LOVES sports, knew where to watch them in Munich and would bet on anything.  Great times,great times.  Well, turns out, we have a few things in common and one of the biggest is our love for college football.  More specifically, dissecting college football ad nausea and making outrageous predictions before the season even kicks off.  Hence, where I come in here.




For some strange reason, Don has asked me to post a weekly blog entry over the 2009 season with my picks, thoughts, analysis and random musings on college football.  As my PS3 has been taken away from me by my wife (it appears that playing NCAA Football, the only game I own, through 3 complete seasons before the real season kicks off is unacceptable?), I have nothing else better to do...so I agreed.  This first entry, in honor of Don's offer, is my brief breakdown  - and predictions - of his beloved Seminoles.  Read on with my apologies.




Now, like most great sports enthusiasts, I love Sports Illustrated and ESPN.  Like air and water, I don't know how some people live without them.  One issue of S.I. that I look forward to more than most (no, not THAT one) is the Annual College Football Preview which was published on August 11th this year.  Ohio State made the cover (which only solidifies what we know already, the Buckeyes CAN'T win a National Championship) and picked the Seminoles to finish 4th in the Atlantic Division behind Clemson, Wake Forest and Maryland.  Ummmmm, not - so - fast - my - friends.




Before I give you my prediction for Florida State, which will make half of you think I am crazy and the other half think I am "on the take" from Don in order to get on the Internet - let me explain to you the "LA System."  Before making my preseason predictions, I do the following for all 120 (Western Kentucky is #120 officially starting next year) Division I-A...excuse me, for all the FBS...schools:


										
	
Rank each of 8 squads (QB, RB, WR, OL, DL, LB, DB, ST) on a scale from 1-10					
	
Research the rosters for each (not just returning lettermen or something equally useless like that) to assign an experience ranking for each school					
	
Load the schedules for each					
	
Use the home field weightings as assigned by Phil Steele (my Yoda and mentor...really...read his stuff if you got the time!)					
	
Assign a random luck range for each team  (if curious, this random luck range is largely determined by last year's outcomes in close games, injuries sustained, etc. and goes under the theory that lucky teams last year will likely fall down this...and vice versa)					
	
Run ten separate simulations for the entire season					
	
Pick winners based on which team is predicted to win more often in each matchup.  In the case of a 5-to-5 tie, the random luck ranges are compared and the predicted "better luck team" is granted the win.					
	
Assign margins of victory based on the median of the simulations in which that team was the predicted winner	


I started this mess (AKA, the LA system...or marriage breaker) back in 2000 or so and have slowly evolved and tweaked it until it reached last year's performance - accurate, straight up, 83.5% of the time (including those MAC and Sun Belt games!) and against the spread 62.7% of the time.  Once I break the 70% ceiling against the spread, I am hitting Vegas.  To give you a feel for progress, I started at ~70% and 50%...respectively.  So, yes, the following prediction is based on a lot of work and has some accuracy.  So, without further adiou, here are my 2008 fearless predictions for (Bobby) Bowden's Boys:






	
		

			
Date
			
Opponent / Event
			
Location
			
Time / Result
		
		

			
 
		
		

			
09/06/08
			
vs. Western Carolina 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 37
		
		

			
09/13/08
			
vs. Chattanooga 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 45
		
		

			
09/20/08
			
vs. Wake Forest 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 7
		
		

			
09/27/08
			
vs. Colorado
			
Jacksonville, FL
			
FSU by 5
		
		

			
10/04/08
			
at Miami 
			
Miami, FL
			
FSU by 2
		
		

			
10/16/08
			
at North Carolina State 
			
Raleigh, NC
			
FSU by 10
		
		

			
10/25/08
			
vs. Virginia Tech 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 7
		
		

			
11/01/08
			
at Georgia Tech 
			
Atlanta, GA
			
Georgia Tech by 1
		
		

			
11/08/08
			
vs. Clemson 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 5
		
		

			
11/15/08
			
vs. Boston College 
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
FSU by 4
		
		

			
11/22/08
			
at Maryland 
			
College Park, MD
			
FSU by 1
		
		

			
11/29/08
			
vs. Florida
			
Tallahassee, Fla.
			
Gators by 7
		
	








That's right, 7-1 in ACC play...and Atlantic Division Champs courtesy of the victory over that "other Bowden squad" everyone is squaking about this preseason.  I will hold off on my ACC Coastal, ACC Championship and Florida State Bowl predictions for now...but, suffice it to say, that my Orange Bowl prediction will shock most and that the state of Florida will be a force once again in 2008.  The main reasons for this prediction are four fold:




1)  A very favorable schedule...even with Florida on the docket, there are 49 other schedules in the nation tougher than this one


2)  A down year in talent for the ACC...trust me, this year's "Big Ten" is the "ACC"


3)  Vastly under rated WR, LB and and DB squads


4)  I wanted to get published on the internet




So, go get those early lines now Don.  Sports Illustrated is wrong.  And while Atlantic Division Champs might be a tad optomistic, I will bet my Tony Dorsett autograph that they finish better than the 4-4 number coming from S.I.  I guarantee it.  Start the annoying war chant thingie now.