The New SpurrierWhen it comes to the SEC, most people consider it the toughest conference year in and year out. I remember back in the 90s when Spurrier would lose to FSU and say it didn't matter because they wanted to win the SEC championship. Well, as much as I dislike Spurrier, I'm getting to almost that same level of despise for both Urban Meyer and Nick Saban. Meyer is a young Spurrier and Saban is a backstabbing coach (remember Miami Dolphins). Anyways, the good news about Meyer is that he is like Spurrier, and although my disdain for the Gators is large, I'm still willing to make some money by bettting on them. However, with a 10 point spread on the line against the #1 team in the country...is it still a good idea to bet on them?
Alabama and Florida are coming into this game a combined 18-5 ATS, which means if you were putting a $100 per game on them, you would be up over $1200 for the season...not a bad investment. Alabama rolled through the SEC West, and UF did the same in the SEC East. These two teams have been on a collision course for quite some time, and it'll all come to a head on Saturday.
Looking at the numbers...both teams are giving up under 2 TDs per game, and UF is averaging 46.3 ppg, and Alabama is at 32.1. Needless to say, both of these team are used to winning by comfortable margins. Honestly, this iis probably the first true test for either of these teams as the SEC has had a down year with LSU, Georgia and Auburn all falling from elite status. So, I'm expecting nerves to play into this one, and that means turnovers. Florida is at +21 in turnovers, and Alabama is +9. Huge Edge to Florida. The other glaring stat is this...UF is an astounding 6-0 ATS against winning teams this year. I'm not talking SU, I'm talking ATS. Heck, they are the Gators of the late 90's with their scoring, and if you were like me back then, you should be making some money on them.
Alabama is going to try and run the ball to keep the ball away from Tebow, but everyone knows this...including Florida. Florida is most likely going to put 7-8 in the box, and say our DBs are better and faster than your WRs, so let's go one on one, and we'll stuff the run. Speed kills, and none more so than Percy Harvin. However, he is questionable with an ankle sprain, but don't worry Gator fans, there is plenty more speed where that came from...just ask the Noles.
In case it isn't clear by now, UF is going to dismantly Alabama, and although I want Alabama to win outright as I hate the Gators, my money will be on Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow. Go with the Gators.
