Coincidence or the new symbol for UT come Sunday morning?

In what should be an excellent weekend of college football, LA brings you his Super Six Picks for the week of October 11th, starting with my PICK OF THE WEEK (5-2 thus far in 2008):  Iowa (-6) @ Indiana.

3-3 Iowa @ 2-3 Indiana.  Sure looks like a TD spread game, doesn’t it?  Let’s lift the hood on these two teams and have a looksie.  Indiana’s losses include: 7-16 @ Minnesota; 29-42 at home to Michigan State; and 20-42 at home versus Ball State and they were out gained in all three losses.   Meanwhile, Iowa has lost 13-16 @ Michigan State; 17-22 @ Northwestern and 20-21 @ Pitt.  Furthermore, they out gained all three opponents and looked to have the Spartans on the ropes until that horrific fourth down call last week.  Indiana has won the last two games in this series but are 10-18 ATS as home dogs.  The Hawkeyes are great up front, have revenge on their minds and will move the ball up and down the Bloomington campus this Saturday.  Iowa’s #3 in the land scoring defense will flex its collective muscle, 27-3.

Oklahoma (-7) vs. Texas from the Texas Fair Grounds

65-13, Oklahoma.  12-0, Oklahoma.  45-12, Texas.  28-10, Texas.  Last year’s 28-21 Oklahoma win aside, this has not been an entertaining series….despite the pre-game hype coming out of Vegas every year - as the games above listed on the big board as 6, 7, 14 (one exception) and 3-point spreads, respectively.  But let’s give Vegas credit where credit is due. While the spreads were ridiculously off they have picked the correct winner each of the last 5 years.  This year’s key matchup is Sam Bradford versus the Longhorn secondary…and UTEP has already exposed that unit.  On 9/6, the Miners out gained UT by 8 yards overall despite the 42-13 beating they took…as they had no problem moving the ball between the 20s but bogged down inside the 20 once the field shrunk.  The Oklahoma OL is just a touch better than the UTEP OL and RB DeMarco Murray is good enough to pound the ball in once Sam and crew get the Sooners into the Red Zone.  Despite the fact that Colt McCoy is playing the best ball of his life, and will make plenty of spectacular plays, I am staying with the trend and calling for Oklahoma to cover handsomely this Saturday.

Rutgers (+7.5) @ Cincinnati (UNDER 48.5)

Too bad I didn’t jump on this one earlier as the spread opened at 9.5 points and is quickly shrinking as folks look into the details on this one.  What looks like a lopsided 1-4 vs. 4-1 matchup should end up being a very entertaining game.  Two high level stats for you:

• Rutgers Offense versus Cincinnati Defense (averages through 5 games):  331.0 to 342.8 total yards

• Cincinnati Offense versus Rutgers Defense:  412.6 to 320.6

The level of competition further illustrates how deceptive those W/L records are as Rutgers has faced North Carolina, West Virginia, Navy and Fresno State whereas Cincinnati has fatted up on the likes Miami, OH, Marshall and Akron.  Second-game starter Chazz Anderson will have a much tougher time facing a real defense this week and toss two picks as Rutgers squeaks out a close, hard fought, victory to ruin the Bearcats Homecoming.  Additionally, the two teams are a remarkable combined 15-1-2 UNDER the last 9 games played in the month of October.  BONUS CALL:  In my first O/U call of 2008, take under 48.5 here.

Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State (+2.5)

The Commodores have screamed out to a 5-0 record and are looking to lock up bowl eligibility by Columbus Day for the first time in…well…ever.  NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND.  Don’t get me wrong, I was singing the Commodores hits before the Commodores were cool (calling the week #2 upset of South Carolina).  But it is time.  My Auburn pick was solid last week except for my own stated Achilles Heal – Auburn’s dreadful conversion to the spread offense (which cultimated in head OC, Tony Franklin, being handed his walking papers today) and I stand behind my call that Vandy is officially over rated.  Lost in that 5-0 start is the fact that the Commodores have been outgained by 271 total yards and are struggling through a QB injury situation right now.  If the Rebels can walk into LSU and post 24 on the road, I think they can muster 17 versus Vanderbilt at home.  And 17 is all it will take to get the win.  Pick the Bulldogs to take a bite out of college football’s undefeated ranks this week.

Notre Dame @ North Carolina (-7)

In a true example of brand name carrying a spread, this tasty little morsel is just too good to pass up.  Tons of stats point to a UNC domination this Saturday:

• Rushing game: ND is only averaging 3.3ypc and gives up 4.5ypc.  UNC is better in both statistics.

• Passing game:  J. Clausen is growing up this season and playing very well – dare I say underrated?  But this is a different beast than the defenses he has been passing over and through thus far.  UNC ranks 19th in pass efficiency defense and has stolen 12 picks in 2008.  If Clausen has a weakness it is completing passes to the wrong colored jerseys at times.

• UNC is 9-3 ATS versus teams with a winning record in the last 12 and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  I am thinking Chapel Hill just might explode before kickoff this Saturday as UNC plays it’s most meaningful home football game since 1997.

If second string QB Sexton can keep calm and collected, North Carolina should walk away a surprising (for some, not me) 5-1.

Arizona (-6) @ Stanford

OK, THAT (Arizona’s 48-14 win over Washington last week) made a believer out of me.  Perhaps new OC Sonny Dykes is that good.  Whatever it is, don’t screw with a winning formula.  As if a 4-1 record isn’t impressive enough, Arizona has out gained every opponent they have faced by an average of 202.4ypg!  Meanwhile, Stanford limps into the game with the worst rated pass defense in the PAC-10.  Danger Jimmy Harbaugh, Danger.  And I guess facing that high flying offense in practice is paying off come Saturday as Arizona boasts the #1 passing defense in America after six weeks of action.  The Stoops family will throw a party late Saturday night as Bob and Mike will both celebrate victories.  Stanford to lose their Homecoming game by 17.

Right about now should be when the picks start coming easier as the unknown variables start to dwindle.  If not, I can just flip a coin from here on out.