The Crystal Football: Please forward all mail to New HampshireWell, that’s the life of a college football fan. Blue one week (one could say “smurf blue”) and all Light and Rainbows the next (one could say “crystal light and rainbows”). Please forgive me as I gloat for one minute. Notre Dame 38, Purdue 21. Yes, I know I called for a Purdue win. Gimme a break - even Cindy Crawford has a mole. Thanks to career days from QB Jimmy Clausen and a little known back named Armando Allen Jr., the crystal football is back home – in Irish country – where it belongs.
And before getting on to the task of starting up week #6, a special shout out is due to my Redskin men - whose win over Dallas knocked out several folks in my NFL suicide pool (but not I) and restored the NFC East as the most competitive division in the league. Life is good.
Speaking of “getting back to where one belongs,” last week wasn’t that bad, going 4-2-1 (19-16-1 overall now or 54% ATS; got work to do) during an impossible-to-predict weekend in college football. Making things even better, the Oregon State over USC pick pushed me back over .500 in midweek games (3-2) which is no small feat in this year of Thursday night madness. Unfortunately, my PICK OF THE WEEK (4-1) took its first blemish of 2008 in an unbelievable UNC comeback over Miami. Gimmie a break – even Claudia Schiffer has buck teeth. Oh, and before I go on…for those of you who watched that Middle Tennessee State comeback over Florida Atlantic last night…we really should join group therapy together (but what a finish!).
Anyway, on to my Thursday night pick. To say this one is a tough one is an understatement and not solely for the obvious reason that I am an avid Pitt fan and HATE picking alumni games. No, the data is conflicting and something has to give. Consider these facts:
- Pitt is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October
- South Florida is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games
- Pitt went 4-1 ATS as away dogs last year
- South Florida went 3-1 as home favorites last year
- Pitt won in 2004 & 2005; South Florida won in 2006 & 2007….2008…?
So, what nugget should we use to break through this virtual deadlock? I suggest injuries and Vegas tendencies. First, injuries: the Bulls starting LB corp is limping with both L. Darr (day-to-day) and B. Mompremier (out indefinitely) nursing bad backs. In addition, All-American DE G. Selvie (ankle) and DT T. McClain (ankle) are questionable with only McClain likely to see the field. In short, the Bulls D is hurting. Not good news with Pitt RB LeSean McCoy still looking for his first monster game of 2008 and the standard Bull defensive package being a hybrid nickel. Second, Vegas trends. Guess what happens when you beat an image-poor 1-4 Syracuse squad 34-24 as your opponent is busy thumping an image-rich (fresh off the East Carolina OT upset) NC State 41-10? You get an inflated spread - Pittsburgh (+14) @ South Florida (-14).
Thursday dogs continue to rule ESPN at night. Vegas calls USF to win by 14…the LA formula calls for a Bull win by 4. Here is to hoping they are both wrong and my Panthers parlay the Crystal Football ND win into a BCS Dreaming Pitt one. Prediction: Pittsburgh 24...South Florida 28.
