Finally, an issue we can all agree on...When reflecting upon my strong Kansas State pick this morning...and the smackdown that Louisville brought last night...I was searching for some common theme for why my first two midweek picks worked out so well and why my Kansas State pick flopped so miserably.  My conclusion:  Obama really is the man.  Using Obama "pics": 2-0.  College football pic:  0-1.  That, and Don is a jinx.  As I can't control Don's picks anymore than I can control Dave Wannstedt's playcalling ineptitude on Saturday afternoons, I have decided it must be Obama.  Hey, everyone needs a good luck charm.

And when I googled "Obama and football" just now...and found this little gem...well, that cemented it.  If curious, I found it at http://www.democraticstuff.com and the button selection there is, well, hysterical.  And, least we not forget, McCain is clearly anti-football as he even made the NFL change it's schedule around his speech during the Republican covention.  *gasp*  So, without further adieu, let's get back to the business of making good picks.  This week, I have 8 games for you...the Kansas State debacle, a special WVU/Colorado late addition (largely due to my desire to make up for the slip yesterday) and the usual Saturday Six.

West Virginia (-2.5) @ Colorado (+2.5)

After opening as a 4-point favorite, the anti redneck sentiment has sunk in and the line has crept down to a lovely sub-FG level.  And while I am not sold on Bill Stewart yet (at all), I do like this little stat:  West Virginia is 6-1 away versus non-conference opponents including 5 straight wins.  Including the East Carolina loss, they have won 14 of 17 regular season road games and are 15-8-1 ATS as away favorities over the past 8 years.  Meanwhile, the Buffs are just 1-6 at home the last 7 games versus non-conference BCS teams losing by an average of 16ppg.  I think WVU will be hacked off, well rested and focused following the bye week...and cover the FG spread.

PICK OF THE WEEK FOR 9/20 (current record: 3-0)

Miami (-2.5) @ Texas A&M (+2.5)

Ummmm, what am I missing here?  The Aggies didn’t just lose to Miami last year.  They were throttled 34-17.  And the game was more lop sided as that score might indicate as A&M gained 132 (or 55%) of their 240 yards in total offense after trailing 31-0.  Further, the Aggies are just 3-14 versus non-conference BCS teams since the start of the Big XII.  How about against the spread?  Well, A&M is just 11-18 ATS versus all non-conference foes over the last 8 years.  Think I am relying on history too much when making this pick?  The Aggies lost to Arkansas State in week #1 (14-18) and squeaked by New Mexico 28-22 to reach .500.  If A&M manages 21 points this week (their average ppg in 2008), do you really think their defense is stout enough to hold Miami to less than 24 points?  (Note:  The A&M defense is NOT comparable to that of Florida.)  Miami is 7-4 ATS as away dogs and 33-6 straight up versus non-conference foes since 2000.  Oh, and Texas A&M isn’t certain who will start under center due to an injury to starting QB McGee.  Miami wins pulling away - 33, 21.

Alabama (-10) @ Arkansas (+10)

Fact #1:  Alabama has lost straight up to Arkansas 3 out of the last 5 years – two of which went to 2OT.  Fact #2:  Alabama is 0-4 ATS as the home favorite under Nick Saban and 5-16 ATS as the home favorite over the last 4 years.  Fact #3:  Arkansas is 8-4 as the away dog over the same time span.  Prediction?  Recent history says the Razorbacks will cover the 10-point spread…if not pulling the upset outright – as the home team is 4-0 in this series over the last 4 years.  Yes, Clemson is that over rated.

Central Michigan (+10.5) @ Purdue (-10.5)

Have the Chippewas joined the Big Ten while I wasn’t paying attention?  This is the 3rd meeting between these two teams in the last 371 days.  They lost in West Lafayette by 23 points during their regular season matchup last year…and Purdue has averaged a whopping 51ppg versus Central Michigan in their all-time series.  If Oregon needed 2OT to post 32 points on Purdue, the Chippewas will be lucky to post 21.  And no way does Purdue score less than 35 when Ohio posted 28 on CMU last week.  You do the math.  Purdue wins big and avoids the “look ahead” to Notre Dame.

Wake Forest (+4) @ Florida State (-4)

Despite the bone head move by Bowden to start Sophomore Christian Ponder ahead of Senior Drew Weatherford, Florida State remains by preseason pick to win a weak ACC Championship and return to a BCS bowl this year.  Wake Forest has won 2 straight over the Seminoles…including an embarrassing 30-0 shutout the last time Wake Forest traveled to Tallahassee in 2006.  Don’t think Bowden will be stupid enough to forget that fact in the pre-game speech.  Hell, even if he does, the players won’t forget.  Seminoles defend their house big time in a revenge game.

Ball State (+3.5) @ Indiana (-3.5)

Love…shall….conquer…all.  Yes, I know that Ball State is 0-19 all-time versus current Big Ten members by an average of 21 ppg.  Yes, I know that Indiana is 32-4-2 versus current MAC teams including a 4-0 record versus Ball State and B-2-B wins the last two years.  But it isn’t like those games weren’t close.  24-23 @ Ball State in 2006.  38-20, at home, in 2007 (but lead by only 7 in the third and were out first downed 22-19 for the game).  I feel a BCS mess coming on this year and I think the Cardinals will be a surprise team in that mix.  Give me some love just for making the call – Ball State 30, Indiana 28.

Georgia (-6.5) @ Arizona State (+6.5)

You can not…I repeat, CAN NOT, lose to UNLV at home and expect to stay within shouting distance of any SEC team (yes, including my beloved Commodores).  And, um, Georgia is no Vanderbilt.  The PAC-10 is fighting the ACC and Big East for the title of worst BCS conference of 2008 and this game will not help their image.  South Carolina got the Dogs attention and they will be looking to prove voters wrong (who leap-frogged Oklahoma over them this week) by blowing out the Sun Devils.  Georgia is 8-4-1 SU all time versus current PAC-10 teams whereas Arizona State is 17-20 ATS the week following a straight up loss.  Now is not the time to have an emotional downer Sun Devils.  Georgia to cover and then some…31-20.