Slammin' Down Thursday Night PicksWell, put Obama in his Baby Blue Unis...because North Carolina just laid a SMACK DOWN on Rutgers and LA continues to slam down the Thursday night picks. A big 2-0 on Thursday night while picking Vanderbilt and North Carolina - straight up no less. If possible to undervalue your #1 underrated team of the year, I did.
Prediction: UNC 27, Rutgers 24
Result: UNC 44, Rutgers 12
Now, let's try to parlay that into my Lucky Seven for the week of September 13th. With any luck, I will reach 3-0 status in MY PICK OF THE WEEK category which is Wisconsin (PICK) @ Fresno State.
This spread proves the fact that America loves an underdog...because, otherwise, it just does not make sense. Yes, Fresno State beat Rutgers 24-7. Um, big deal. I think McNeese State would beat the Scarlet Knights with QB Teel playing the way he has the first two weeks of the season.
Wisconsin beat a decent Akron team by 21 and...after sleep walking for a half...woke up and THUNDERED all over the Herd to the tune of 51-14. The scary part? The Badgers were able to do this despite missing two of the best players in America. Tight End Travis Beckum is on my short list of folks poised to take home the Mackey Award and is a definite first or second round NFL Draft pick. He returns this week and "bends" the Fresno State LB corp over like, well, like Beckum. On defense, Wisconsin welcomes the return of their star LB and leading tackler, Joanathan Casillas. If both are anywhere close to 100% (and I doubt Bielema would start them if not), watch for them to make a big impact in a game that Wisconsin would win anyway.
Their return turns this into a "disappointing" yawner for who those who stay up late hoping to crown a Cinderella instead of being a 4th quarter Badger win.
PreGame Stat of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0 since 2002 when traveling to a non-conference away/neutral site game.
Prediction: Wisconsin 35, Fresno State 14.
Ohio State (+10.5) @ USC (-10.5)
My preseason National Championship Game prediction was USC versus Florida with the Trojans winning. After two weeks, I am loving that pick. So, needless to say, I am calling for USC to win Saturday night. The question is: will they cover? Before the injury in week #1 and the subsequent announcement today that Beanie Wells is unlikely to play, I thought Ohio State had a good chance to cover Saturday night. Wells was the play maker, and leader, Tressel has been missing the last two years.
Another fact to consider: Most teams improve the most between week #1 and week #2. Ummmm, danger WIll Robinson, danger. Ohio State struggled to get past Ohio and USC had a bye week after pasting Virginia 52-7, on the road, in their opener. For USC to improve from their first week to their second week, it requires covering the spread here...and Troy will be rocking for their home opener in a game that may be over hyped.
USC has won the last 5 in this series (and leads 11-9-1 overall)...Trojans will need both hands to keep track come Sunday morning. USC big - if Tressel isn't playing possum with Beanie's toes.
Rice (+7) @ Vanderbilt (-7)
Are these two teams REALLY a combined 4-0? Yes. And, yes, Vandy is about to make it to October undefeated (@ Miss. and bye weeks are next).
There is such a thing as manners. If a huge underdog goes out on Thursday night and makes you look like a genius, you stick with them. Especially when that team is 2-0 after beating a good South Carolina team and a Miami, OH team (on the road) that pushed the Wolverines to the 4th quarter in the Big House. Meanwhile, the Owls are looking like an overinflated 2-0 after beating a pedestrian SMU team at home and needing a miracle to survive Memphis on the road. Before tonight's UNC/Rutgers game, this was going to be my PICK OF THE WEEK. Take Vandy to cover - big time. Maybe a factor x3.
NC State (+18.5) @ Clemson (-18.5)
Two facts to consider if you are concerned about the -18.5 points.
1) Last week NC state beat William & Mary (what, Joseph wasn't available?) by 10 following an EGG of a game to open the season versus South Carolina. Clemson came out in week #2 pissed off and did what they should have done to The Citadel - 45-17. The game versus Alabama was a 1 in 10 games scenario (the margin of victory, not the victory itself) and, yes, the Crimson Tide is really that good.
2) Clemson has averaged 269ypg rushing over the last 3 years versus NC State and the Wolfpack gave up 115 yards to W&M last week.
O-Oh. Thunder and lightning drop a storm all over the Wolfpack - take Clemson to cover the 18.5. And, if they don't, call Vegas and place $20 on UNC to win the ACC outright.
Ball State (-7) @ Akron (+7)
Give me some love. Some Dante Love. If Mr. Everything for Ball State continues on the tear he has opened the 2008 season with, he will be a 2,000 yard receiver and Ball State could rise up and win the MAC. I really love watching this kid play.
But you don't mess with a trend like this: The Cardinals are 1-11 since 1996 in road openers with the average loss by 27ppg. Further, the visitor is 1-5 since 1994 in this series and Ball State's last win versus Akron was in 1993. Akron has opened @ Wisconsin and @ Syracuse while Ball State has opened with FCS Northeastern and Navy at home.
Go with the trend and tougher start making the Zips more prepared for a close contest...over the outstanding WR at Ball State. After all, love only gets you so far.
Michigan @ Notre Dame (PICK)
ND made me look foolish last week - until the 4th quarter. ND would have been favored by 7 or more had they not played so horribly against the Aztecs in their opener. Rich's spread is NO where near polished and their D is good...but not great. The Irish have not lost 3 consecutive games to Michigan since 1908 and lost in 2006 and 2007.
Weis and team circled this one in the preseason and I will take them in a PICK game...because, well, just because.
Hey,
Those games make you feel like a fool, but dust it off and move
on. I'll just go with you guys this week and I will hope your picks
don't tank. Let's face it with the spread it's anybody's guess.
I'm in......Thanks for the picks!
Even picking my Irish may not save this...
IloveKirk