LA Picks College Football - Week #3

McCain and Obama will unite...for one day...in honor of the 7th Anniversary of the 9/11 tragediesMcCain and Obama will unite...for one day...in honor of the 7th Anniversary of the 9/11 tragediesIf 9/11 can bring together these two bitter enemies and put a (temporary) hault to all the ridiculous mud slinging going on in the race for President...shouldn't it bring two friends - such as Don and I - even closer?  Well, after reading his column where he picks for Rutgers to beat UNC by 6 or more tonight...the answer is, apparently not.

North Carolina (+5.5) @ Rutgers (-5.5)

At season onset, I tabbed UNC as a "team to watch out for" and Rutgers as my number #1 over rated team in the land.  The first two weeks of the season - including the close call against McNeese State coupled with the apparent crowning of Fresno State as our national champion - has many people (including my buddy Don) thinking Rutgers will roll tonight over the Tarheels.

NOT-SO-FAST-MY-FRIEND.

First off, McNeese State is the 2008 edition of Appalachian State...well, almost.  The Cowboys (mystery solved Don) went 11-1 last year - including a 38-17 rout of FBS member UL-Lafayette.  They won the Southland Conference last year and finished 11th in the final 2007 FCS polls.  Cowboy's QB Derrick Fourroux led the SLC in pass efficiency and yards rushing by a QB last year and picked up where he left off this season.  He torched UNC for 224 total yards and will lead McNeese State VERY deep into the FCS Playoffs this year.  In addition, a final "junk" TD by McNeese State made the score look a lot closer than it was...sooo, the 8-point victory is not as "bad" as it looks at first blush. 

Now, how about that loss to Fresno State?  It was worse than it looks on paper.  First off, Fresno is about to be exposed...in a MAJOR way...this Saturday when they host Wisconsin at home.  Second, Rutgers didn't just lose at home - they made New Jersey smell even worse than usual by stinking up the home of college football.  Without Ray Rice at RB, Mike Teel tried to carry the team and ended up throwing 2 picks.  Projected starter Robinson ran sparingly and Sophomore Kordell Young was held to <100 total yards and a 3.6 average ypc.  Watch how silly Wisconsin makes that total look this Saturday night.  On the other hand, the Rutgers D was a relative sieve....letting a healthy (he was injured for most of 2007) Mathews rip them up and down the field - for a 6.3 ypc average (!) and 163 total yards.  Soooo, that 24-7 beat down Fresno gave Rutgers?  It was way worse.

As for the venue and atmosphere of a Thursday night game?  I think it will play more into UNC's hands than Rutgers.  Sure, the Knights have been good as of late on Thursday night but this is the first Thursday night game for North Carolina since 2006 and EVERYTHING UNC on the net is buzzing already.  And, if the Rutgers faithful remain true, there will be many more butts in the seats tonight then there would be if the game was played in Chapel Hill.  For kids (like the ones playing in Baby Blues tonight) with something to prove, there is nothing like a packed house to silence.

Final Stat to consider:  Rutgers is 19-54-1 all time versus current members of the ACC (including a loss to woeful Maryland last year) and UNC is the only team not counted in the 54 ACC wins.  That ends tonight...as everybody should beat Rutgers at least once.

Take the 5.5 tonight and watch in disbelief as UNC hits a 3 pointer...oops, I mean FG...to announce that yes, the ACC is bad this year but the Big East is worse.

UNC 27, Rutgers 24

My gut says Rutgers with a lock...bbbbbbb....Blow Out!!

We will see if guts...or data...win out in only a few more hours. But in a blow out...? I assume this would be defined as more than double the spread? If you will give UNC with 11 points, I am in with BOTH feet....!

GO PITISH!
L.A.

I've been gambling probably since most of you were just a gleam
in your parents eye. I have placed wagers on 3 day drunks, computer
data, flipping a coin, hell pissin' in the wind...and I gotta tell you, my
gut wins everytime!! Take rutgers in a 2 touchdown victory!

This crow taste like chicken! Hey you all are the experts I'm
riding your train from now on!!! I could'nt pick my daddy out
of a bus full of Nuns! Later.....P.S. glad I did'nt bet the farm!