*ahem* Well, so much for roaring out of the gates. After a weekend of upsets, I find myself with the very modest record of 3-4 ATS with one week in the books. Don't go buying the ticket to Vegas just yet LA.
The remainder of my picks will come tomorrow but here is my Thursday night pick. Get ready to be flipping between the NY Giants and Washington Redskins game and the college football shocker I am calling for tonight...
South Carolina (-10.5) @ Vanderbilt (+10.5)
QB Smelley gets his first start of the 2008 season after the injury to starting QB Beecher in the season opening NC State smashing. Smelley, in spotty play last season, posted an unspectacular 9:7 TD to INT ratio and threw up 3 picks in the South Carolina spring game (sad I know that) - which essentially gave the starting nod to Beecher. Take note.
Last year's 17-6 Vandy win was their first over a Spurrier coached team (1-14) and snapped a 7 game series win streak by the Gamecocks. It wasn't a fluke - Vandy fields one of the (if not THE) best secondary squads in the vaunted SEC - and Spurrier continues to call a pass-first oriented offense minus a legit man under center. There are articles all over the place today calling tonight a "revenge game" for South Carolina. If you read the articles closely, the player quotes and general vibe going into tonight's game reads "tight" to me...its almost as if the South Carolina players are thinking about last year's loss TOO much. The Ol' Ball Coach should be reminding these college KIDS that South Carolina has OWNED Vanderbilt 7 of the last 8 years instead of talking about how much last year's loss hurt.
Look for the Cocks to get tighter and tighter...before finally going limp (sorry again)...if Vandy gets ahead by 10 points or more at any point. Regardless of how it plays out, I think Vandy will play loose and tough - keeping within the 10.5 point spread if not pulling the upset outright for the second year in a row.
Vanderbilt as a home dog under Johnson: 9-10-2
South Carolina as an away fav under Spurrier: 3-1
Buck the trend in this case.
South Carolina 17 (Smelley with 2 or more picks), Vanderbilt 20
