Now THAT'S the way to start off the season. An upset right off the opening tee with a photo finish. This is why I so love this sport.
Anyway, with week #1 underway, I wanted to publish the first of my weekly submissions. Each week, I will pick 6-7 games per week versus the spread. With 15 weeks in the season, I will pick 100 games...making it easy to see what my final picking percentage is...my goal is north of 80% straight up, 70% against the spread. Wish me better luck than the Beavers.
PICK OF THE WEEK FOR 8/31 (LABOR DAY WEEKEND)
Utah (+4) @ Michigan (-4)
Utah's biggest weakness is at the linebacker position - which would normally spell doom going up against a spread offense geared to expolit the 5-15 yard zone, where the linebackers roam, with downfield passing - but Michigan will be starting redshirt Freshman Steven Threet in the debut of a completely new offensive scheme for the Maize and Blue. On the flip side, the Utes will start Seniors Brian Johnson at QB and Darrell Mack at RB running behind an experienced O-line. While Michigan is 4-1 all time versus Mountain West foes, they barely squeaked by Utah (10-7) in 2002 and the "Big House effect" will be largely negated by the fact that both starting QBs will likely be in awe of playing there. In the stat of the week, Utah is 23-13 ATS over the last 8 years and 11-5 ATS as road dogs over the same time span. Appears the boys from Salt Lake City never get the proper love. Pick Utah to continue Michigan's opening day woes. Utah 31, Michigan 17. What happens in the Big House tomorrow will resonate all season long. MUST SEE TV.
Other Picks of the Week
Temple (-3.5) @ Army (+3.5): Last years 21-37 loss @ Army was very misleading as Temple had 11 more First Downs and a 463-330 total yards gained edge with the defense allowing just 16 of the total 37 points (Army had 3 TDs off of special teams and defense!). Temple by 17.
SMU (+3) @ Rice (-3): The June Jones era kicks off tonight in Houston as SMU travels to Rice in what should amount to a shoot out. Rice won in wild fashion LY - winning on a last second FG to overcome a 15-point 4Q deficit. The teams are once again evenly matched but Jones will have SMU ready to finish strong. Ponies straight up in the upset.
North Texas (+24) @ Kansas State (-24): The Wildcats are one of my most underrated teams of 2008 and have completely BLEW UP North Texas in their last two meetings...rumbling for 658 total yards in 2005 (school record) and pasting the the Mean Green by a combined score of 109-17 in those two games. Some rich North Texas alums must be betting blindly to have this be (only) a 24-point spread. Wildcats by 35.
Michigan State (+5.5) @ California (-5.5): Cal will pull it out in the end, but Sparty will give the Bears all they can handle in week 1. Michigan State is 3-0 as road dogs ATS under second year head coach Dantanio while Cal is 12-13 as home favorities under Tedford. Cal by 2...but don't be surprised if MSU wins straight up.
Clemson (-5) vs. Alabama (+5) from Atlanta, GA: The RB duo of James Davis and CJ Spiller are about to explode all over an average front 7 for the Crimson Tide. The fact that this game is only a 5 point spread can only be attributed to the fact that everyone expects Clemson to choke this year and everything SEC is good. Clemson in a rout...this could get ugly.
Missouri (-9) vs. Illinois (+9) from St. Louis, MO: In one of the harder games to call this weekend, I am calling for "the Juice" to be a difference maker as he was knocked out of last year's game early in the 2Q (uncalled blow to the head) and Illinois hung tough anyway before conceeding 34-40. I can't convince myself to call for the upset outright - but Ilinois beats the spread.
