Florida vs. Oklahoma Pick (BCS National Championship Game)



2008 BCS National Championship2008 BCS National ChampionshipHere we finally are, nearly 4.5 months since the opening kickoff of College Football, and all we have is one more game to go.  It's a sad time for most college football fans, but we have one final game to go....so turn those frowns upside down.  Whether you like the BCS or not, this is our national championship game, unless the AP poll decides to give Utah the title, which I might add they deserve.  You don't beat 4 ranked teams, including Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, and not deserve to win it.  If Utah had that type of win prior to the BCS selections, then they would be playing tomorrow instead of Florida or Oklahoma.  However, here we are, with another SEC team going for the title, but this time instead of easily being able to roll over a weak and slow Big 10 team, they get a quick Big 12 team, and I can't wait to see the results.

Florida at Oklahoma +5

The Big 12 has been struggling this Bowl season to cover the spread.  Their much heralded offenses have struggled, their defenses have looked like cheddar cheese, and no one is thinking they can hang with the big tough Florida team of the SEC.  The line for this game has gone from 3 to 5.  Sure, two points doesn't sound like a lot, but each 1/2 point from 3-5 is huge.  It takes a lot of people betting on Florida to move the line that much.  So, do we go with the crowds or form our onw path?

Both of these teams have impressive statistics, and although OU has been known for the ungodly type of numbers, it's actually Florida's numbers that have drawn my attention.  Not only are they scoring 45+ points per game, but they are only giving 12.8.  Both OU and Florida have been TO demons, at +23 and +22 respectively.  Averaging almost 2 turnovers more than your opponent per game is going to lead to a lot of wins.

OU is 12-1 SU, and an impressive 10-2 ATS.  Likewise, Florida has the same exact recored both SU and ATS, however, they are an astounding 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning record.  Florida has also been favored in all 13 games this season, whereas this will be OU's first time as the underdog.

All of this leads me to believe we should take Florida, and follow the crowd.  However, those who follow the crowd never make any money...just ask any entrepreneur.  Florida showed some weaknesses against Alabama.  'Bama was able to move the ball on the supposed great UF defense, and also limit UF's offense to almost 100 yards less than their average.  OU is going to have to study film of what 'Bama did, and if Stoops can remember what type of defenses he used to have while at Florida, they can actually win this game.

At the beginning of my Bowl Pickem with Mr. Lewis, which was almost 3 weeks ago, I predicted a 51-31 win for OU.  I haven't seen anything or heard anything yet to change my mind.  Percy is supposed to play, but he won't be 100%, and that means OU has a chance to stop the run and make Tebow and UF defense one-dimensional.  My theory is that this game may even make it all the way to 6 points, and that is where I would jump in.  Boomer Sooner!