Buy Low on Nolasco

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Ricky Nolasco is still goodRicky Nolasco is still goodI, like a lot of other fantasy owners, probably drafted Ricky Nolasco a bit earlier than some thought he was worth.  However, if you looked at his 2008 numbers you would hard pressed to find any fault with doing so.  He had nearly a 8K/9IP strikeout ratio, a 4.43K/BB ratio, and just a 1.10 WHIP...all with a fairly standard .284 BABIP.  He was a waiver wire pickup in our league, and the reason I grabbed him somewhat earlier than expected in our league was because I was watching him last year, and then someone snagged him right out from under my watch.  So, I was bound to not let that happen again  this year, but now that I have him, his ERA and WHIP look like that of a 2007 Justin Verlander.  But like Verlander of this year (more to come), you have to look more into it.

Nolasco is currently sporting a 6.60 ERA, and a 1.60 WHIP, for fantasy owners other than those who have Chien-Ming Wang, those are horrific numbers!  However, remember those ratios I gave you regarding Nolasco's 2008 season? Well, what if I was to tell you he has the nearly the same ratios this year as last year, and that is he going to do just fine.  Nolasco's current numbers are the following for 2009  (2008 in parenthesis):

7.2 K/9 (7.88)

1.8 BB/9 (1.78)

4.00 K/BB (4.43)

So, you can see that he is basically the same pitcher, but the one glaring difference is in his BABIP.  Last year he was at .284...perhaps a little low compared to the MLB average, but close enough.  This year his BABIP is at .385, which is absurdely high.  Over time, this number is going to regress to the mean, and we are going to see the numbers we expect from Nolasco...just be patient.