Who to Bet

It's been a while, but below is our current list of pretenders and contenders when it comes to pitchers and their BABIP. A quick scan of the pitchers that are getting the luckiest has some popular names like Cueto, Jackson and Gallardo. I believe in Gallardo, but I'm not sold on the other two, so you might want to try and sell high on those guys right now.

Scanning the unluckiest pitchers thus far I see Lester as a possible great pick up. His K/9 are off the charts, his BABIP is obviously too high, and his FIP is at 3.88 while his ERA is at 5+. With numbers like that, you have to think he is going to come back to the norm and reap big rewards.

Zobrist a possible StarThroughout the year I am constantly scouring the waiver wire looking for the next big thing, or at least someone that will help fill in a gap that I overlooked during the draft, or as the result of an injury.  Last year I was able to get Ryan Ludwick, and enjoyed about 25 of his 37 Homeruns.  The amazing thing is that I was probably the 3rd or 4th person to pick him up, but I held on, and reaped the rewards.  This year I am thinking Ben Zobrist may be another one of those types of players, not that he will hit 37 Hrs, but he should be a good fill in with positive numbers.

Here is another addition to our pretenders and contenders story line. As you can see there are some definite contenders (Lincecum) that are just getting robbed out on the baseball diamond. Others, like Volquez and Wolf, are getting luckier than they should. A new category that you should pay attention to is FIP, which is basically what there ERA should be. The formal definition is "Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded." Anyways, here is the current list of Pretenders and Contenders.

Carlos Quentin started the year off HOT, I mean extremely hot!  After just 12 days of baseball, Quentin already had hit 7 HRs and was looking like he may even eclipse last year's breakout performance.  Unfortunately, it has been pretty much all down hill since then.  He has seen his average drop from .302 down to an abysmal .237, and he has only had 1 HR since then, and that was almost 2 weeks ago.  So, what in the world is going on with him?

First installment of the Pretenders and Contenders when it comes to Pitchers. A pitcher, unlike a hitter, should always regress to the mean of about .300 for BABIP. Here are some pitchers that are either getting really unlucky or really lucky. What you need to look for are those who are keeping their BB/9 low, and have a high K/BB ratio. Finally, if a pitcher has a very low (lower than 60%) Left on Base % (LOB%), then they are most likely going to start to do very well also.

Keep your eye on the BallAs I was scanning my fantasy baseball team I noticed that Chris Davis is battling a measily .193, which I daresay is hurting my average for sure.  I decided to look into his BABIP and noticed that he is at a respectable .275, which should be a bit higher, but good enough.  Then I happened to look at his HR/FB%, and saw that he is actually up in that category over 2008 by almost 10%.  So, what is the problem here?  Well, I scanned across the page and saw his K%, which is at an amazing 47.7%!  That is high enough to currently lead the majors.  This K% is going to come down probably closer to the mid 30s by year end, but it's still amazing he is so high as of right now.  Here are the current leaders in K%, both good and bad.

We've done a good amount of analysis to find players that we think will turn it around, and I'd like to share with you that ZIPS has released their latest projections for the remainder of the season.  This spreadsheet should give you a good idea of what players will do for your team the rest of the season.  A great tool for analyzing trades and potential rookies.  Crazily enough, I didn't find A-Rod anywhere on the sheet, but that is probably b/c he hasn't played yet.  Enjoy.

2009, ZiPS In-Season Projections:  Hitters through April 28

Is Verlander Back?Justin Verlander was one of the big disappointments of 2008.  He had 2 good years, then fell off the wagon last year.  This year started pretty much the same with Verlander getting shelled time in and time out.  However, let's look closer at the numbers.  Verlander was still striking out a ton of batters, his BB/9 were actually down, but what was different was his BABIP and his LOB%.  Normally a pitchers' left on base percentage is around the 70% mark, but as of today he is at just 50%, as was down in the 30% range before his last good outing aginst the Yanks.  Basically, hits were coming in bunches instead of being spread out like normal.  However, should we believe this...let's take a look at his velocity.